Trust The Data.
Owner-tracked prop research with the results left in the open — the wins, the losses, and the two weeks in February that went badly.
Hit rateWins ÷ (wins + losses). Pushes and voids are not in the denominator. This filter: 103 ÷ (103 + 78) = 56.9%.
56.9%
Total playsEvery graded play, pushes included. 2 voids excluded — there was no action.
188
RecordWins–losses–pushes.
103-78-7
Owner-only public tracking · Official plays since Sept 2025 · Last updated Aug 2, 2026 · 8:10 PM ET
Nothing above this line is editable after the fact.
Read the full recordHow the record is kept
A record is only worth reading if you know the rules it was written under. These are the rules, and they were set before the results came in.
Only the owner’s plays
Everything in the record was posted by the owner. Moderator plays, contributor plays and community picks are never counted in these numbers.
What counts as a play
Every play posted in the VIP channel. Each one goes to VIP first and to the socials afterwards, so nothing reaches the record that members did not see first. Commentary and analysis are not plays.
Graded at the posted number
A play is graded at the number and price published when it was posted. If the line moves afterwards, the grade does not — whether the move helped or hurt.
Posted before it starts
A play joins the record when it is posted publicly, with a timestamp, before the event begins. Nothing is added afterwards.
Pushes and voids
A push is a play and sits outside the hit rate. A void means there was no action, so it leaves the record entirely.
Line and price
The number and price recorded are the ones available at the named book at the time of posting. Closing numbers are captured where they were available.
Graded after every slate
Results are graded and published the morning after the games settle. Nothing is edited after grading.
How a play gets made
The process is deliberately boring: a projection, a price, a size, and a written-down result. Five steps, in this order, every time.
Data collection
Game logs, usage rates, pace and matchup history for every player on the slate.
Model and trends
Project the stat line, then compare that projection against the number the books posted.
Line shopping
Check the same number across books and take the best available price, not the first one.
Risk parameters
Size against the size of the edge. Confidence is not a unit size.
Post-play review
Grade it, record the closing number, and write down what the projection missed.
Two ways in
Free and VIP are two tiers of the same thing. Both are delivered in Discord; VIP is billed through Winible.
Free
No card, no account.
- The public record, updated after every slate
- Selected plays posted in the free Discord channel
- A weekly recap of what hit and what did not
VIP
From $8 · cancel any time
- Every play, posted to the private channel as it is made
- The line and the price at the moment of posting
- Written reasoning on each play
- VIP plays are graded into the same public record
What this is not: no guaranteed outcomes, no blended records, no claims about next week. The record is the whole argument.
Not ready to pay? Come read along.
The free channel carries selected plays and the weekly recap. Watch the record move for a few weeks before deciding anything.
Questions people ask first
21+. Bet what you can afford to lose.
Nothing here is investment advice and no result is guaranteed. If betting has stopped being entertainment, call 1-800-GAMBLER or text 800GAM to 53342 — free, confidential, 24/7.